The Four Pillars of Macro with Andy Constan
Excess Returns
00:00
Is the Bond Market Always Leading the Equity Market?
The problem is they're not very good at predicting. What I consider important is does the bond market always lead the equity market so that you can, what the bond market is saying will then a month later show up in the equity market? Well, if so, there's some alpha there. And I've looked for that alpha to look to see if bond market information leads equity market information and it doesn't exist. It's well-orbitrugged. So despite what the pedigrees of the fixed income investor versus the equity investor, there's nothing to the logic that they're smarter.
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