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#48 Adam Robinson: Winning at the Great Game (Part 2)
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
The Ultimate Bait and Switch
In the cold war, spatsky had the ultimate bait and switch with with spasky ya. Human beings have a limited processing ability write our brains,. We can't maintain a whole lot of information in our head at any one point. A psychologist named paul slovik gets eight horse handicappers into a room to see how good they are on predictions. Their accuracy was still only 17 % with forty races, but their confidence doubled from 31% to 19%.
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