The Hidden Drivers of Innovation

When might AI truly transform our world, and what will that transformation look like? Even within our own research team, timelines for AGI differ substantially. In this episode, the two Epoch AI researchers with the longest and the shortest AGI timelines candidly examine the roots of their disagreements. Ege and Matthew dissect each other’s views, and discuss the evidence, intuitions and assumptions that lead to their timelines diverging by factors of two or three for key transformative milestones.

The hosts discuss:

• Their median timelines for specific milestones (like sustained 5%+ GDP growth) that highlight differences between optimistic and cautious AI forecasts.
• Whether AI-driven transformation will primarily result from superhuman researchers (a "country of geniuses") or widespread automation of everyday cognitive and physical tasks.
• Moravec's Paradox today: Why practical skills like agency and common sense remain challenging for AI despite advancements in reasoning, and how this affects economic impact.
• The interplay of hardware scaling, algorithmic breakthroughs, data availability (especially for agentic tasks), and the persistent challenge of transfer learning.
• Prediction pitfalls and why conventional academic AI forecasting might miss the mark.
• A world with AGI: moving from totalizing "single AGI" or "utopia vs. doom" narratives to consider economic forces, decentralized agents, and the co-evolution of AI and society.