Swing Voters, Turnout, and Split-Ticket Behavior

Chuck Todd unpacks the escalating chaos around Donald Trump’s second term, from his doom-and-gloom rhetoric to the brazen decisions that have left few guardrails in place. Voters may not reject Trump’s ideas outright, but his nonstop turbulence—from shaming pregnant women over Tylenol to undermining global allies—has created deep political vulnerabilities. Todd explores how small businesses, foreign policy, and even health guidance have been rattled by Trump’s need for instability, while noting that divided government historically forces presidents to govern more broadly. The monologue also turns to Vice President Kamala Harris, whose new book reveals her frustrations with the 2020 ticket and her uneasy positioning for the future, raising tough questions about her political style and prospects.

Then, Congressman Chris Deluzio joins Chuck to talk about the political transformation of Western Pennsylvania, the challenges of running as a Democrat in a swing district, and the lessons he’s learned since succeeding Conor Lamb. From the hollowing out of factory towns to the rare but pivotal swing voters who decide elections, Deluzio reflects on the realignment that has reshaped the region’s politics. He also opens up about how 9/11 led him to serve in the Navy, why he believes American democracy is at risk, and the urgent need for reforms to restore voter trust.

The conversation also dives into big debates in Washington: partisan gerrymandering, government shutdown brinkmanship, establishing limits on presidential power, and the dangers of politicizing the military. Deluzio weighs in on rail safety after East Palestine, social media’s effect on kids, and congressional corruption—from stock trading to pay structures that keep working-class Americans from serving. Plus, Chuck gets his take on the rising cost of energy, Pittsburgh sports, and whether Democrats can win back voters by focusing squarely on economic issues.

Finally, he gives his “ToddCast Top 5” football coaches on the hot-seat and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

02:45 Trump speeches create heightened sense of doom & gloom 

04:00 Trump’s actions the past few weeks have been brazen

05:00 Far fewer people standing up to Trump in his second term

06:45 Voters don’t reject Trump’s ideas, they disapprove of the chaos

09:00 Trump’s political prospects are deflating every day

11:00 The last 3-4 elections have been “vote against” elections

12:45 Divided government forces presidents to govern broadly

14:30 The goal of bringing order to chaos is popular

15:00 Trump has brought nothing but chaos to health & vaccine policy

16:00 Trump & team shamed pregnant women & blamed Tylenol for autism

17:30 Trump showed no evidence to support Tylenol recommendation

18:30 Trump only tries to please his base

19:00 Trump trashes Europe and UN in speech to the UN

20:15 Trump wants constant instability & chaos

22:00 The lack of certainty is upending small businesses

23:15 Trump is incapable of preaching a message of unity

26:00 The constant chaos is Trump’s biggest political vulnerability

27:15 Voters wanted Trump 1.0, a Trump with guardrails

28:00 A voters lived experience will Trump perception

30:00 Trump’s post on Ukraine didn’t sound like it was written by Trump

31:00 Trump’s post cancelling meeting with Schumer had a Trump tone

32:30 Marco Rubio is clear eyed about the threat from Russia

34:30 Trump cancels meeting with Democrats, headed for gov’t shutdown

35:45 Trump is not interested in negotiating with Democrats

37:00 Kamala Harris reveals her true feelings in new book

38:30 Harris admits she settled for Tim Walz, Buttigieg was her first choice

40:00 The book makes it harder for her to win the presidency is the future

41:30 Harris’s style doesn’t match the mood of the voters

42:30 Harris was put in a near impossible situation

44:30 Congressman Chris Deluzio joins the Chuck ToddCast 

45:15 How much has your district changed since Connor Lamb won it? 

46:15 How did the Pittsburgh area swing from Democratic to Republican? 

47:00 The hollowing out of factory towns was key to political realignment in PA 

47:45 Who is the McCormick/Deluzio voter? 

48:45 Swing voters still exist but are rare 

50:30 How difficult is it to talk to voters with the "D" next to your name? 

52:15 9/11 sealed Chris's decision to join the navy 

54:15 We should be very concerned about the state of American democracy 

55:30 Younger generations will have a worse standard of living than their parents 

57:15 Democrats mixed message on redistricting 

58:00 We should have a federal ban on partisan gerrymandering 

58:45 Democrats can't unilaterally disarm 

59:45 Gerrymandering makes it hard to earn trust back with voters 

1:01:15 Senate Democrats should use their leverage in shutdown fight 

1:02:15 Only open to six week extension if Republicans willing to work with Dems 

1:03:30 Thoughts on Fetterman's intention to vote to fund the government 

1:05:00 There's been a scrambling of the centrist & progressive wings of the party 

1:06:30 The fissure in the party is more about fighting than ideology 

1:07:15 Fighting the imperial presidency is the priority 

1:09:00 We need to put limits on the executive to prevent overreach 

1:10:15 We can't be at the mercy of the whims of the president 

1:10:45 Kash Patel's FBI shut down investigation into Tom Homan taking cash bribe 

1:12:00 We need to formal guardrails and can't rely on norms 

1:12:45 Trump's efforts to politicize the naval academy and military 

1:14:30 Efforts to politicize the military are dangerous and erode trust 

1:15:15 Military lawyers ignored,extrajudicial killings in Caribbean are illegal 

1:17:15 Presidents have abused war powers for years, Congress needs to intervene 

1:18:30 Defense is one of the few areas of bipartisan cooperation 

1:19:15 Republicans willing to work on rail safety after East Palestine derailment 

1:20:45 Can congress work together on internet/social media safety for kids? 

1:21:45 Banning smartphones in classrooms has 80/20 support 

1:23:15 There's a huge concentration of power in tech and media 

1:24:15 It's harder for a president to bully a diverse market that isn't consolidated 

1:25:45 Voters agree that there's corruption, but they think all politicians are corrupt 

1:26:45 We should ban congressional stock trading, corruption breeds distrust 

1:28:00 Congress deserve pay raise in exchange for stock trading ban 

1:30:45 You shouldn't have to be wealthy to serve in congress 

1:31:30 Working class candidates need to be supported 

1:32:15 Can Democrats drop cultural issues and purely run on economics? 

1:34:00 The rise in energy bills could become a huge issue in coming months 

1:35:00 The Big Beautiful Bill will make the energy prices problem worse 

1:36:00 Tempted to go to the Steelers game in Ireland? 

1:37:30 Pittsburgh Pirates ownership issue 

1:39:30 More PSU or Pitt fans in your district?

1:40:30 ToddCast Top 5 football coach hot seats 

1:41:00 Mike Gundy fired by Oklahoma State 

1:43:30 #1 Mike McDaniel of the Miami Dolphins 

1:44:30 #2 Brian Callahan of the Tennessee Titans 

1:45:30 #3 Luke Fickell of Wisconsin 

1:47:15 #4 Dabo Swinney of Clemson 

1:50:15 #5 Billy Napier of Florida + Honorable mentions 

1:54:00 Ask Chuck

1:54:15 Why has the term "writ large" become used so much in news & podcasts? 

2:01:00 Are journalists who stay silent in face of authoritarianism showing cowardice? 

2:05:00 Shrinkflation showing up now at Costco

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