Introduction

One of the six tenets of oak tree's investment philosophy states flatly that we don't base our investment decisions on macro forecasts. Consensus forecasts provide no advantage, only from being more right than others can investors expect to dependably earn above average returns. Many investors think their job requires them to develop a macro outlook and invest according to its dictates. Successful stock pickers or real estate buyers often make pronouncements regarding the macro outlook even in the absence of evidence linking their investment success to accurate macro forecasts....