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Botek Is Te Back of the Envelope Calculation.
The author spent two minutes writing down options for his life. By the time he'd listed out three or so, he started to get a sense of where it was probably going to go. He realised there were lots of plausible things that could be done but didn't know which one would be best. The only real way him to resolve this is to dive in and do them all right - then see which is highest.