Following on from January 2nd’s prediction episode, Mark Leonard hosts Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East programme director, Alex Vines, ECFR’s Africa programme director, Andrew Small, ECFR’s Asia programme director, and Jana Kobzová, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme, to discuss what challenges Europe should focus on in 2026.

How will global politics shift in 2026? Will we finally see an end to the war in Ukraine? How are the ongoing protests in Iran affecting the likelihood of an Israeli attack? What’s next for the Gaza peace deal? What are the major points of conflict that will shape Africa this year? And will Europeans finally confront China’s growing influence?

Bookshelf

The War Came to Us: Life and Death in Ukraine by Christopher Miller

Indignity: A Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi

Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Road to Power in Syria by Patrick Haenni and Jerome Drevon

Sahel: The Perfect Storm by Morten Bøås

China’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 by Daniel H. Rosen, Logan Wright, Oliver Melton and Jeremy Smith (Rhodium Group)

This podcast was recorded on January 8th 2026

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