Now, here's a prediction for you - watch those Waikato University medical school costs blowout.

I reckon it's gonna blow out and there's all the signs this thing is gonna blow out.

Even when the Waikato University was itself putting in less money, which is $100 million, there were questions about whether it could afford it because Waikato University's debt level is maxed out at the moment.

So everybody looked at it and went, are you actually gonna be able to afford it?

Well now, it not only has to put in the $100 million, it has to put in $150 million between itself and some philanthropists it needs to find.

Now, what do you think happens if for whatever reason, it cannot quite find that money? Who do you think is going to be called upon to fund the gap?

The long-suffering taxpayer. That's a blowout for us.

Now, that's not even mentioning the chances that this thing costs much more than what they say it's gonna cost. I'm very suspicious about how it is that a $380 million project suddenly got cut down to $230 million without anything actually being cut out of it.

How did that happen?

And even at the higher estimate, which was $380 million, I was already worried that that wasn't really going to cover it, because there were warnings then that it was going to blow out - because the thing is being rushed.

Treasury said that whenever we rush things, like the Dunedin Hospital build, we end up with unexpected and often urgent cost escalations.

Now, I'm incredibly cynical about the fact that this has somehow managed to radically cut the costs of a scheme that was being questioned for being too expensive and unnecessary when we already have two medical schools.

And I worry very much that we have been presented the best case scenario to get us across the line on a National Party election promise that actually wasn't stacking up anymore.

And that once we've invested in this and the shovels are in the ground and the costs start to blow out, we go - well, we're already pouring money into it, we simply will have to continue pouring money into it, which is how this always goes.

So I hope that this comes in under budget, and if it does, I absolutely will apologize for what I'm saying right now, but I don't think it will.

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