Is a Recession Likely in the Next 12–18 Months?

Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, sits down with Wilf this week to outline his bullish view for US equities, and how inflation is the elixir for earnings growth, provided the Federal Reserve isn’t hiking rates. Both surprisingly and controversially he does NOT believe the Fed is independent, but thinks this is, in fact, GOOD for stocks.

Wilson, widely respected for his bold market calls and deep analytical acumen, opens up about the art and science behind his celebrated investment insights – and the costly lessons learned from getting it wrong. He reflects on the origins of his framework: a blend of hands-on bottom-up analysis (having started his career as a tech stock analyst), and a unique focus on the “rate of change” in earnings growth and policy. He shares rare wisdom on how policy shifts, passive flows, and liquidity are redefining what drives asset prices today, breaking down why traditional models often fail and what sets his approach apart.

Listeners will discover how Wilson correctly navigated the major market turning points during the pandemic and its aftermath, calling the lows in March 2020 and then the market top in late 2021 with uncanny accuracy. Perhaps more strikingly he opens up about what he missed in 2023, as the market rallied but he maintained a cautious outlook, and what he learned from that experience. Wilson’s candid account of missed signals, bear market calls, and the challenge of embracing new investment themes will resonate with anyone who knows the pain of holding conviction in turbulent times.

Wilson explains his latest bullish outlook for U.S. stocks, why he believes the rally is broadening, and what makes 2026 a year to watch for cyclical and overlooked sectors.

Frost and Wilson explore the risks and opportunities created by the Federal Reserve’s evolving stance, inflation regime shifts, and the ongoing transformation of market leadership from technology and mega-cap “moat” stocks to sectors long left behind. He shares actionable advice for individual investors – why time horizon is the ultimate edge – and offers critical insights for institutional allocators about managing risk in an era of policy volatility.

He also outlines why he is a believer in the Trump administration’s economic policies and why he thinks a US economic recession has already happened – and been missed by everyone including the Fed – and is now in the rear view mirror.

This episode promises not just expert commentary but a masterclass in risk-taking, strategy adjustment, and contrarian thinking from one of Wall Street’s most trusted and provocative minds.

The content of The Master Investor Podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. Always seek independent financial advice before making investment decisions

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This podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.