3min chapter

The Bayesian Conspiracy cover image

124 – Longevity

The Bayesian Conspiracy

CHAPTER

Introduction

Burn in Some Details is a continuation of the conjunction fallacy that we've been talking about for the past couple episodes. By adding extra details, you make an outcome seem more characteristic of the process that generates it - even though that makes it less probable. Inyash Brodsky: Just hours after we posted the episode, someone was arguing against it and saying, like, how this is, why it doesn't make that much sense. Jay Sticky: I thought brought up a really good example, so I'm going to read that. The user who was, again, why weaker, says that the conjunction fallacy of the conjunction Fallacy actually makes sense,. It's like saying Superman will

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