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Why A Third-Party Candidate Poses A Threat To Biden
FiveThirtyEight Politics
The Importance of Predicting the Election Results
Historically, in most cases, third party or independent candidates have lost ground as you got closer to the election. John Anderson was running as an independent in 1980 against Jimmy Carter and ended up with just under 7%. Ross Perot led Bush and Clinton in 1992 but ended up with 18% or 19%. So, yes, things can definitely change. I know that general election polling this far out has very wide error bars in terms of its predictiveness.
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