2min chapter

The Bayesian Conspiracy cover image

184 – The Cultic Milieu

The Bayesian Conspiracy

CHAPTER

The Importance of Small Shifts in Probability

People put a very high value on small shifts in probability away from one zero or one a certainty effect and I'm looking forward to reading a story where the average person finds that confusing. We are about to be reading plane crash which is the latest fix that Eliezer is writing together with Kelsey Piper and we're going to be reading several chapters every week and talking about them. And just put so much emphasis on 100 is weird and yet me being a baseline human I'm like no man certainty of money is tight. So yeah that's on the other podcast I do or the other other podcast there's there's multiple other podcasts that I do now.

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