Makrol Forecasts Aren't a Source of Above Average Returns

Most forecasts are extrapolations of recent trends and current levels. Because they are already reflected in security prices, most extrapolations aren't a source of above average returns. The forecasts that produce great profits are the ones that presciently foresee radical deviations from the past. But that kind of forecast is very hard to make and second, rarely right. So there's a conundrum. Investing is the art of positioning capital so as to profit from future developments. Most professional investors strive for above average returns - but few invest while practising agnosticism with regard to the makerol future. They may on some level understand the difficulty entailed in forecasting, but their reluctance to admit