Astral Codex Ten Podcast cover image

A Failure, but Not of Prediction

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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Generic Smart People Are No Match for Deep Domain Knowledge

There are currently only 10 cases of coronavirus in the US. This should sound like there is no reason to panic, says Andrew Keen. But some people on Twitter got things exactly right by waiting for proof. They didn't necessarily give a higher probability but were just better at probabilistic reasoning.

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