Forecasting in Investment: Balancing Tradition and Technology

This chapter explores the complexities of forecasting in investment, emphasizing the importance of statistical methods and broader market themes. It also discusses the integration of AI into the stock market, examining its historical impact and the challenges and opportunities that arise from blending traditional investment practices with modern innovations.

Transcript

chevron_right

Play full episode

chevron_right

Transcript

Episode notes

On today’s episode, Clay is joined by financial history expert, Jamie Catherwood, to discuss market forecasting, interest rates, and the efficiency of markets from a historical perspective.

Jamie Catherwood is a Client Portfolio Specialist at O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and also the author of the popular blog, Investor Amnesia.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

01:35 - Why we shouldn’t try to make market forecasts.

04:56 - Psychological biases that play into why investors are prone to forecast markets.

08:47 - How we can determine which market forecasts are worth putting weight on.

17:10 - Jamie’s thoughts on the AI craze of 2023.

25:52 - Jamie’s take on where interest rates may head from here.

30:23 - Broader consequences of zero percent interest rates and loose monetary policy.

33:59 - Historical examples of governments restructuring their debt.

40:47 - How investor access to information has impacted the efficiency of markets.

47:53 - Jamie’s favorite book from 2023.

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members.
Learn more about the Berkshire Summit by clicking here or emailing Clay at clay@theinvestorspodcast.com.
Related Episode: TIP505: The Price of Time w/ Edward Chancellor | Youtube Video.
Jamie’s blog: Investor Amnesia.
Jamie’s Sunday Reads Blog.
Marc Andreeson’s article: Why Software Is Eating the World.
Books mentioned: Seeking Wisdom by Peter Bevelin, Confusion de Confusiones by Josef De La Vega, The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor, and Taming the Street by Diana B. Henriques.
Follow Jamie on Twitter.
Follow Clay on Twitter.
Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here.

NEW TO THE SHOW?

Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.
Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.

SPONSORS

Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:

Bluehost
Fintool
PrizePicks
Vanta
Onramp
SimpleMining
Fundrise
TurboTax

HELP US OUT!

Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!

Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!

Get the app

Home Top podcasts Popular guests