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The Importance of Probability in Predictions
I was suspicious of prediction markets or betting markets and all the betting odds during this 2020 cycle but I always realized that there was a possibility that that I was wrong. Predictions are only wrong for these very prominent and interesting and well-covered political events they just aren't enough of them to actually say because you need such a large sample. In order to judge how good someone is at forecasting that you just really need a remarkably large samples, he says.