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#5 - Practice 4: Research as if You’ll Argue Both Sides Like Warren Pies

Taylor Made Macro

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Predicting Recessions through Construction Employment Analysis

The chapter explores the significance of analyzing construction employment in forecasting economic trends, particularly during recessions. The hosts discuss indicators like yield curves, LEIs, and PMIs, and debate the inclusion of residential specialty trade contractors in their research. They emphasize the importance of understanding residential construction payrolls as leading indicators of economic cycles and share insights on combining quantitative data analysis with traditional macroeconomic analysis for a comprehensive understanding.

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