We Can't Predict Foreign Policy Two Years Out

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If we can't predict foreign policy two years out, how well can we understand our own hinginess? Well, so here's a general argument for thinking that, at least plausibly, a very influential time. And i think this argument works. I don't think it means like wete out the mostn atime. That's like, a substantially harder argument to make. But it's just the level of technological progress is very high compared to history and also very high against what must happen in the future.

When Tyler is reviewing grants for Emergent Ventures, he is struck by how the ideas of effective altruism have so clearly influenced many of the smartest applicants, particularly the younger ones. And William MacAskill, whom Tyler considers one of the world’s most influential philosophers, is a leading light of the community.

William joined Tyler to discuss why the movement has gained so much traction and more, including his favorite inefficient charity, what form of utilitarianism should apply to the care of animals, the limits of expected value, whether effective altruists should be anti-abortion, whether he would side with aliens over humans, whether he should give up having kids, why donating to a university isn’t so bad, whether we are living in “hingey” times, why buildering is overrated, the sociology of the effective altruism movement, why cultural innovation matters, and whether starting a new university might be next on his slate.

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Recorded July 7th, 2022 Other ways to connect

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