On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market.
After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks around the world tightened liquidity, in response to the record high inflation rates that shocked markets all around the world. In this interview, Neal walks through the market dynamics that allowed him to spot this trend reversal of the previous 10+ years. As central banks began tightening & reducing liquidity, Neal launched the contrarian macro fund in April 2021 and saw an opportunity that many overlooked. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(16:14) The Fed in 2022
(21:52) "The Sell-Off Was Orderly"
(24:02) Blockworks Research
(25:36) The Summer Rally of July & August 2022
(27:24) Thoughts On Current Rally
(32:02) Rates & Stock Relationship
(36:11) Permissionless Plug
(37:14) The Labor Market Is Strong
(40:31) Are Stocks Pricing In A Soft Landing?
(44:23) Defining Liquidity
(46:42) Which Is Neal Berger More Bearish On - Stocks Or Bonds?
(48:43) Is This A Suckers' Rally?
(50:53) IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME
(51:46) Yield Curve View
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
