Guide Versus Disclose: Use Confidence Intervals

[Original air date: May 8, 2025]

When it comes to investor relations, an organization’s communication strategy should be a key instrument to support its business strategy. While this may seem obvious, so often we get this wrong. In this episode, CJ hosts a masterclass on investor relations with Samuel Levenson of the Arbor Advisory Group and Jon Neitzell of Andruil Partners, focusing on the strategic role of IR in driving company valuation. They cover what “audience opportunity” really means and what to do when you’ve attracted the wrong investors. They talk about metrics, KPIs, and OKRs, plus why management credibility and conveying conviction can make or break your IR strategy. They also discuss what has changed in the IR profession over time and what hasn’t (but probably should) before suggesting changes you can make to drive impact immediately.

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LINKS:

Samuel Levenson on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/samlevenson/

Jon Neitzell on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-neitzell/

Arbor Advisory Group: www.arboradvisorygroup.com/

Anduril Partners: https://www.andurilpartners.ai/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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RELATED EPISODES:

Investor Relations as a Strategic Weapon: A Masterclass

https://youtu.be/ac9xmURhAqE

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:02:22 Welcome to Sam and Jon

00:03:12 Linking Business Strategy and Communication

00:05:01 Proactive vs. Reactive Investor Relations

00:06:39 Tailoring the Message by Investor Type

00:08:05 Audience Opportunity and Ideal Shareholders

00:11:05 When the Investor Base No Longer Fits

00:12:21 Shifting Investors as Industries Change

00:13:16 Optionality Comes From Patient Shareholders

00:14:40 Conveying Conviction Through Credibility

00:17:03 Why Investor Days Build Trust

00:18:02 Metrics Versus Storytelling in IR

00:19:10 Choosing Metrics the Market Actually Rewards

00:22:30 Valuation Disconnects and Investor Confusion

00:23:17 Finding Metrics That Truly Drive Value

00:25:33 Avoiding Bad Capital Allocation Decisions

00:26:20 Disclose Versus Guide: Confidence Intervals

00:27:35 Knowing What You Don’t Know

00:29:33 Science Versus Art in Storytelling

00:33:11 When Algorithms Become Your Audience

00:33:56 Passive Investing Now Dominates Markets

00:35:16 Linking OKRs to Value-Driving KPIs

00:36:42 Closing the Strategy-Metrics Feedback Loop

00:38:07 When Investors Sense Operational Confidence

00:39:47 Why IR Becomes Strategy Consulting

00:41:28 Why IR Teams Stay Undersized

00:43:23 Sam’s Accidental Entry Into Investor Relations

00:44:34 Mentorship Over Formal IR Training

00:46:18 How Markets Outpaced IR Practices

00:47:01 Investor Days Go Virtual

00:49:34 Designing a High-Quality Earnings Call

00:50:41 Investor Days as High-ROI Investments

00:51:45 IR Websites as Investor Onramps

00:53:42 World-Class Investor Day Examples

00:54:20 Using AI to Prepare Investor Communications

00:56:19 Building a Proactive IR 2.0 Strategy

00:58:33 Why IR Requires Full Executive Buy-In

01:00:51 Data Transfers Conviction to Investors

01:03:31 Closing Reflections on Trust and Valuation

#RunTheNumbersPodcast #InvestorRelations #CapitalMarkets #ValuationStrategy #CFOInsights

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