Equity Risks: Pick Durable Earnings

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Christopher Whalen to the show. Christopher Whalen is an Investment Banker, Author, and Chairman Whalen Global Advisors. The discussion centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and the future of the global financial system. Whalen argues that the world is in the early stages of a gold up-cycle, primarily driven by central banks increasingly adopting gold as a key reserve asset. He emphasizes that while the US dollar remains crucial for global trade, its dominance is gradually shifting. Whalen provides insights into the current economic challenges, highlighting inflation as a significant concern. He suggests that the federal deficit and monetary expansion are primary drivers of economic instability.

The conversation explores the potential for alternative monetary approaches, including gold-linked bonds and revaluing gold stocks, though Whalen remains skeptical about a complete return to a gold standard. Regarding global currency dynamics, Whalen believes the BRICS settlement currency and attempts to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy are unlikely to succeed in the near term. He argues that the dollar’s utility in financing transactions and its widespread acceptance make it difficult to replace. However, he anticipates a gradual decline in the dollar’s global share, moving towards a more multilateral system reminiscent of the pre-World War II era.

On investment strategies, Whalen recommends diversification, particularly advocating for 10-20% of portfolios to be allocated to gold. He is cautious about current equity markets, especially tech stocks driven by artificial intelligence hype. The banking sector presents mixed prospects, with consumer banking relatively stable but commercial real estate posing significant challenges. Ultimately, Whalen remains optimistic about the United States’ economic potential. He believes the country’s natural resources, economic flexibility, and inherent strengths will help manage current financial challenges. The discussion concludes with a nuanced view of economic transformation, suggesting adaptation rather than catastrophic decline.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:54 – Gold’s Long-Term Cycle
00:01:21 – Central Banks Buying Gold
00:03:13 – Inflation and AI Hype
00:05:44 – Monetary Inflation Defined
00:07:04 – Metals as Safe Havens
00:11:13 – Commodity Supercycle Thesis
00:13:03 – Treasury Debt Issuance Strategy
00:15:44 – Gold-Linked Bonds Proposal
00:19:12 – Gold Remonetization Incentives
00:21:36 – BRICS Currency Challenge
00:26:56 – Outgrowing US Debt
00:32:41 – Equities in Inflation
00:36:26 – Banking Sector Health
00:38:32 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
X: https://x.com/rcwhalen
Books (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/mv3wctcr
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/

Over three decades, Chris has worked as an author, financial professional, and journalist in Washington, New York, and London. After graduating, he served under Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) at the House Republican Conference Committee. In 1993, he was the first journalist to report on secret FOMC minutes concealed by Alan Greenspan. His career included roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, Tangent Capital, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings.

Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books: “Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise” (2017), published by Laissez Faire Books; “Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream” (2010) by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of “Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,” also with Wiley.

He served on FINRA’s Economic Advisory Committee from 2011 to 2023 and was an advisor on Season 5 of SHOWTIME’s “Billions.” Additionally, he was a fellow at Indiana State University (2008-2014), a member of Villanova School of Business’ Finance Department Advisory Council (2013-2016), and a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (2017-2019).

Christopher edits The Institutional Risk Analyst and contributes to other publications and forums. He has testified before Congress, the SEC, and FDIC. A regular media commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox News, Chris is active on social media under “rcwhalen.” He is also a member of The Mortgage Bankers Association and The Lotos Club of New York.