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What You Never Knew About Your Grocery Store & Understanding Uncertainty

Something You Should Know

CHAPTER

The Importance of Probability in Predictions

After intelligence failures in the Iraq War, intelligence agencies were told from now on who have to express your judgments in probabilistic terms. Obama said afterwards that people were trying to give me these probabilities, which will serve to disguise uncertainty rather than to illuminate it. That's not the way you deal with uncertainty by making these numbers up. We have rather different views about how it should be done. How should it be done?

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