Quarter-by-Quarter Z‑Score Method

RJ Bell and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL betting for Week 17 As the NFL calendar turns to Week 17, the conversation centers on motivation, late season data, and targeted betting angles shaped by how teams actually perform across game segments. The discussion opens with a clear theme, late season handicapping requires a different lens, particularly as playoff incentives sharpen for some teams and vanish for others. With a large sample now available, quarter by quarter and half by half scoring trends are treated as actionable signals rather than noise. That approach drives the headline recommendation of the week, Baltimore versus Green Bay, where the data shows an extreme split between early and late scoring. The first half consistently underperforms expectations while the second half consistently exceeds them, leading to a primary position that the second half will outscore the first. Supporting angles include first quarter unders and first half unders, all pointing to the same structural imbalance rather than a simple total play. Motivation analysis also plays a central role. New England is highlighted as one of the league’s strongest first half teams, paired against a Jets team perceived to be prioritizing draft position, making Patriots first half minus seven a featured recommendation. Tennessee’s strong recent first quarter performance contrasts sharply with New Orleans’ league worst first quarter results, producing a Titans first quarter position split between plus points and moneyline exposure to reduce vig. Game script considerations dominate several player and team prop discussions. Josh Allen’s passing yardage under is framed not as a talent fade but as a run heavy Bills game plan when playing from ahead, leading to a correlated parlay pairing Buffalo to win with Allen under 194.5 passing yards. Defensive pressure metrics inform the Chargers team total under against Houston, with the expectation that sustained pressure limits Justin Herbert regardless of game outcome. Additional plays lean heavily on effort and incentive. The Raiders are positioned against a Giants team viewed as actively tanking, while Jacksonville versus Indianapolis is framed as a pure scoring environment with both teams capable of pushing the total over 48.5. Tony Pollard’s rushing prop is supported by Tennessee’s commitment to the ground game in competitive spots, and Chiefs Broncos under 36.5 reflects quarterback uncertainty and expected conservative game plans. Throughout the analysis, the emphasis remains consistent, late season edges come from understanding who needs the game, who is willing to empty the playbook, and how scoring actually unfolds by quarter rather than relying on full game narratives alone.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices