Botec, Scientific Optimism, and Expert Guidance

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This chapter explores the concept of 'Botec' in public policy, shifting perspectives from catastrophic thinking to manageable scenarios through estimation exercises. It also delves into the themes of scientific optimism, perseverance, and the importance of aspiration in scientific thinking, highlighting the balance between skepticism and optimism for progress. Additionally, the conversation emphasizes the role of listening to experts for guidance in achieving personal goals while considering individual values and the necessity of experts to communicate uncertainty effectively.

How do we make sense in a world that often seems nonsensical? In this week’s episode, Kurt and Tim team up with Saul Perlmutter and Rob MacCoun, co-authors of Third Millennium Thinking, to try and answer these unanswerable questions for listeners. Together, they bring the scientific method from theory to practice as they explore key aspects of scientific inquiry, probabilistic thinking, and the significance of embracing uncertainty in problem-solving.

Saul and Rob help bring scientific practice into reality and cover various topics from the role of experimentation in identifying cause-and-effect relationships, the importance of assigning probabilities in decision-making, and the virtues of persistence and optimism in tackling challenges.

In today’s increasingly polarized climate, it’s important to understand the value of seeking diverse perspectives to avoid mental traps and the power of collective cognition in decision-making. From probabilistic thinking to scientific optimism this conversation showcases how applying the scientific method can enhance not only our individual way of thinking but our interactions with the world.

Topics

[4:08] Intro and speed round

[7:48] Scientific method and experimentation in various fields

[16:54] Using probability to make informed decisions

[21:34] Dangers of polarization and the importance of making quick estimates

[28:08] Using mathematical estimates to solve problems

[32:55] Scientific optimism in the face of challenges

[43:05] Collective cognition and the importance of acknowledging uncertainty

[50:35] Grooving Session: Using the scientific method to improve thinking

Links

Third Millennium Thinking: Creating Sense in a World of Nonsense

Nobel Prize - Saul Perlmutter