Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
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Ika, I've Useitg Nuclear Weapons
Ika: I'm interested to kind of rewind to those first few weeks. Robert, i think at some point you wrote a post on your sub stack where, i think you estimated the risk of use of nuclear weapons at something like fourseeecet sent over there. Yes, so that was mostly my fear that russia would try to shake up the conflict to a demonstration of a tactical nuclear weapon within ukraine. In my forecast, that's what i was forecasting, rather than an atmospheric test or which i think there's an additional chance of. Now that i've seen the dynamics and the way we're escalating, i think the escalation is alarming, but i don't
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