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Are We Going to Have a Recession?
We've got both sides of policy, fiscal and monetary policy, really moving in a pro cyclical manner. And i think that's why a lot of people are going to be surprised at this idea that we actually are recession. The fed is basing policy on two lagging indicators. They're looking at headline inflates, actually corps inflation, but they're looking at broad based inflation indices like the personal consumption de ter. Those headline numbers look awful right now, and have been pretty sticky in the last few months. So those are very high numbers, and as you know, we don't think they will be sustained.