2min chapter

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All You Ever Wanted To Know About Interest Rates | DC Analyst

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

The Market Doesn't Believe the Fed

The futures market is definitely to some extent. At least if you take it at face value the Fed is saying that yeah we don't think rates will be that high at the end of next year. And in the options market you can even see this more vividly expressed like if you look at for December. If you look at a call spread that targets 2% to 1.5% on the federal funds rate which is like absurdly below what they projected to be. It's going to be interesting to see if that evolves and if like the probabilities start shifting more towards oh yeah like the Fed is is is going to cut by the end of 2023.

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