2min chapter

80,000 Hours Podcast cover image

#60 - Phil Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Forecasting Tournaments - It's Not About Accuracy

i think it's probably short sighted for advocates, for activists, to exaggerateh but i understand the temptation. Forcasting tournaments are almost the opposite of that. I mean, forecasting tournamentsoif yo se you put a probability of one on something and it doesn't happenyougt, your credibility gets hit harda probability of zero, when it does happen,. Your credibility gets hard. If you had been moreand more moderate, take a much lower hit. And there theire their credibilityis often called into account.

00:00

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode