Nic's Probability Estimates for Q‑Day

Join Tommy Shaughnessy as he speaks with Nic Carter, partner at Castle Island Ventures, about his deep dive into the existential threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin. After six months of intensive research and discussions with Nobel Prize-winning physicists, Nic breaks down why the "quantum threat" has moved from theoretical FUD to a material risk that the Bitcoin community is currently unprepared to face.They explore the "Q-Day" timeline, the vulnerability of Satoshi’s 2 million BTC, and the urgent need for a migration to post-quantum cryptography. Can Bitcoin’s rigid governance survive the most significant technical challenge in its history, or will sovereign nations and private firms reach the coins first?🎯 Key Highlights▸Why Nic stepped away from podcasts and TV to focus on precise technical writing.▸The 2025 Quantum Inflection: Why 2025 was a record year for quantum investment.▸The Trillion Dollar Bug Bounty: The "unsolvable" problem of Satoshi’s P2PK addresses.▸Why Bitcoin developers implemented Taproot without making it quantum-resistant.▸Defense in Depth for BTC: The technical hurdles of implementing post-quantum signature schemes and the potential for a mandatory "migration" period.▸How the U.S.–China rivalry mirrors the 1939 race for the atomic bomb.▸Applying maritime law to the potential "theft" of ancient Bitcoins by private firms like IBM or Microsoft.▸Scoring the Bitcoin core developers’ preparedness at a 1/100.💡 Want to stay updated with the latest in crypto & AI? Hit subscribe and the notification bell! 🔔🧠 Follow the Alpha▸ Nic Carter Twitter: @nic_carter🔗 Connect with Delphi🌐 Portal: https://delphidigital.io/🐦 Twitter:   / delphi_digital  💼 LinkedIn:   / delphi-digital  🎧 Listen onSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/62PR1Ri...Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...Youtube:    / @delphi_digital  Timestamps00:00 — Miami loafers and Nic’s return from podcast retirement 01:50 — The 4-part series on Quantum’s risk to Bitcoin 03:00 — Why "Quantum FUD" is actually quality risk assessment 04:30 — 2025: The year the consensus among physicists shifted 07:30 — Probability of a quantum break: 70-80% by 2035 10:00 — Defining Quantum vs. Classical: Probabilistic states and entanglement 15:30 — Physical vs. Logical Qubits: The importance of fidelity thresholds 20:00 — Risk #1: The 2 million BTC sitting in Satoshi’s original wallets 24:00 — Risk #2: Address reuse and the vulnerability of Taproot 28:30 — The "Y2K" of Bitcoin: Working backward from Q-Day 34:00 — The 1/100 preparedness score for Bitcoin Core 40:00 — Geopolitical scenarios: Will the US government requisition the coins? 44:00 — The 1939 Parallel: Secret research and the race for "facile material" 48:00 — How an IBM/Microsoft "theft" would look on-chain 53:30 — Why ETH and Solana may have an easier path to upgrading 59:00 — Maritime Law: Shipwrecks, the Titanic, and "finds" in Bitcoin 01:05:00 — Final outlook: Biting the bullet vs. pleasant fantasiesDisclaimerThis podcast is strictly informational and educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any tokens or securities or to make any financial decisions. Do not trade or invest in any project, tokens, or securities based upon this podcast episode. The host and members at Delphi Ventures may personally own tokens or art that are mentioned on the podcast. Our current show features paid sponsorships which may be featured at the start, middle, and/or the end of the episode. These sponsorships are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to use any product, service or token.