Recession Timing and the Double‑Dip Call

Danielle lays out data revisions showing job losses began earlier, concludes the U.S. entered recession in 2024, and explains QI Research's call for a double‑dip recession similar to 1980–81.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the September FOMC. DiMartino Booth argues the Fed "chose independence over economy" with its 25bp cut, as Waller and Bowman sacrificed potential Fed chair positions by not dissenting for larger cuts. She presents compelling evidence the US has created zero jobs since April in the core private sector and calls a double-dip recession starting Q2 2024. DiMartino Booth's thesis is that "the Fed put is dead" - if the Fed goes to zero bound again, the 40% of stocks owned by 70+ year-olds will be forced to sell, stress-testing passive flows for the first time in history. She advocates reforming the Fed's structure, eliminating the conflicting dual mandate, and warns that unknown leverage in private markets represents the new systemic fault line.

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Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Danielle in studio post-FOMC

0:36 Fed chose independence over economy - 25bp cut reaction

2:32 Waller's non-dissent - sacrificing Fed chair shot for integrity

3:46 US created zero jobs since April in core private sector

5:43 Monetary Metals ad read