Middle East Diplomacy and Trump's Unique Short-Term Wins

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck breaks down a week that feels like a case study in America’s democratic backslide. With the government shutdown dragging on and Donald Trump disengaged from any real effort to end it, Republicans in Congress are paralyzed — and Democrats risk losing ground the longer it continues. Chuck examines how Trump’s brand of politics has reshaped the culture, from congressional dysfunction to GOP leaders dodging accountability on everything from Epstein files to free speech hypocrisy. Later, he dives into the Supreme Court’s looming decision on the Voting Rights Act, the ripple effects of potential gerrymandering shifts in the Sun Belt, and the latest shake-ups in Democratic primaries — from Janet Mills’ funding alliances to Florida’s Hector Mujica making AI a centerpiece of his campaign. It’s a snapshot of a democracy under strain — and a politics struggling to evolve.

Then, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul joins Chuck Todd for a sweeping conversation about whether the world is slipping back into a pre–World War II world order marked by isolationism, power struggles, and a fading commitment to democracy. McFaul argues we’ve entered a new era of great power competition, with China offering an alternative world order and America retreating from its role as the global stabilizer. The two discuss how Trump’s “strong vs. weak” worldview reshapes alliances, why autocracy is gaining ideological ground inside the U.S., and what happens when America stops believing in exporting democracy.

From the growing unity of the European Union post-Ukraine to Taiwan’s fears of being sold out to Beijing, Todd and McFaul explore whether it will take another crisis to “sober up” American politics. They also debate Trump’s paradoxical legacy — destabilizing allies while showing skill in Middle East negotiations — and what kind of leadership it will take to rebuild collective security and moral credibility in an increasingly unstable world.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:15 It’s strange having an American president that’s not pro-democracy

04:15 The government shutdown non-update update

05:00 Trump is not engaged at all in trying to end the government shutdown

06:45 Prior presidents didn’t engage in foreign trips during shutdowns

08:15 Republicans in congress can’t negotiate without Trump

09:45 The longer the shutdown goes, the more Dems lose what they gained

11:00 Trump received more votes in LA county than 15 states he carried

12:00 Trump is punishing his own voters in blue states/cities

14:30 Mike Johnson’s refusal to convene house gives Epstein theory credence

15:45 Johnson doesn’t want members to have to take vote on Epstein files

17:15 Republicans trying to brand No Kings protests as a “Hate America” rally

17:45 Saying protestors “hate america”…is un-American 

19:45 Donald Trump has culturally changed America for the worse

20:30 Release of abhorrent group chat from young Republican leaders

21:30 MAGA argues for “no speech police”, but only for themselves

22:45 Speech should always be free, but speech does carry consequences

24:45 SCOTUS hearing case that could potentially end the Voting Rights Act

25:30 Fears over gerrymandering from SCOTUS ruling may be overblow

26:45 Gerrymandering could create many more swing seats in sun belt

29:15 We don’t yet know whether the ruling will disenfranchise black voters 

30:00 DSCC set up joint fundraising committee with Janet Mills in Maine

31:15 UAW has already endorsed Platner over Mills

31:30 Seth Moulton mounts primary challenge against Ed Markey

32:45 Generational vs. Ideological change in Democratic primaries?

33:30 New ads running for VA DA race addressing Jay Jones texts

34:30 Ad highlights Spanberger’s refusal to endorse Jones

37:00 Democrat Hector Mujica enters Florida senate race

38:15 Mujica highlights federal job cuts and AI job displacement in ad

40:15 Mujica is the first candidate to really centralize AI in their pitch

41:45 AI advances might remind people of importance of human connectivity

44:00 Michael McFaul joins the Chuck ToddCast 

45:00 Are we in a similar set of conditions to pre-WW2? 

46:00 We've entered a new era of great power competition 

47:15 In some ways we're in a cold war, in some way we're not 

48:00 Our economy is highly intertwined with China's 

48:45 America's isolationism similar to 1930's 

51:00 Was the cold war an outlier period for American & world history? 

52:30 Everyone understood the USSR as an adversary during cold war 

53:15 America was the great power during cold war, underestimated ourselves 

54:15 The "law of the jungle" is returning as the US retreats from the world 

56:00 No unity around "small d" Democracy in America, can't export it 

57:15 Trump defines the world by "strong leaders vs. weak leaders" 

58:15 Trump's style of diplomacy works in middle east, not with allies 

59:30 China is another hegemon, and offering a different world order 

1:00:30 Autocrats vs Democrats fight is between countries & domestic 

1:01:45 Many Americans now closer to Putin ideologically than Democrats 

1:03:15 Venezuelan activist wins Nobel, her message to Trump was brilliant 

1:04:15 We should have done more to help democracy in Venezuela 

1:07:00 Trump shut down NGOs that promote democracy on world stage 

1:07:45 America needs to run a better pro-democracy campaign worldwide 

1:08:30 America's security arrangement w/Europe was working well 

1:09:45 Something bad will have to happen to sober up American politics 

1:12:30 There's a fear of debate in American politics & on campuses 

1:14:15 The importance of debate on college campuses 

1:16:45 The EU has gathered collective strength as America retreats 

1:17:45 Russia invasion of Ukraine + Reelection of Trump recalibrated Europe 

1:19:45 Europe has gained unity and clarity 

1:21:15 Trump deserves credit for trying to end the Russia/Ukraine war 

1:23:00 How will the great power conflict play out in Asia 

1:24:30 We need more alliances and collective security in Asia to counter China 

1:25:15 Taiwan is nervous the US will sell them out to China 

1:26:00 Invasion of Taiwan might be the event to wake up the west 

1:26:45 Trump's skill set is uniquely suited to negotiations in middle east

1:28:30 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Michael McFaul 

1:29:00 Ask Chuck 

1:29:15 How closely does "The Morning Show" reflect an actual newsroom? 

1:35:15 Do FCS and Div 2 & 3 programs more accurately rep college football? 

1:39:30 Is Greg Abbot sending troops to Chicago to build a national profile? 

1:45:00 What podcasts do you regularly listen to? 

1:48:15 Why are conservatives attacking Bad Bunny's citizenship when he's American? 

1:53:15 College football preview

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