Is There a Risk of Ruin?

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Many people understand tat there is a risk of ruin, and can be very small. And ande, you know, sometimes weu gat to take it. You see, many people ant stand that and than yet, but few understand that that risk needs to be zero, not small. Why? Because think of what happens in the sequence of risk taking. If you take a risk, sit was a russian rule, at a risk of going and survive, what would you do next? You may take it again. A so many risks that are very, very small, because you've survived them lead to a hundred % risk of roing, right? Because you get wel

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Antifragile, Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about a recent co-authored paper on the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and the use of the Precautionary Principle. Taleb contrasts harm with ruin and explains how the differences imply different rules of behavior when dealing with the risk of each. Taleb argues that when considering the riskiness of GMOs, the right understanding of statistics is more valuable than expertise in biology or genetics. The central issue that pervades the conversation is how to cope with a small non-negligible risk of catastrophe.