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The Futility of Recession Forecasting as Part of an Investment Process
This Week in Intelligent Investing
Is There a Ton of Debty Leverage Driving the Situation?
Ahen: As you look at basically every balance sheet, other than state, local and federal, things are in pretty good shape. Ahen: There's just so many different forces working against each other right now that it's really hard to say with much confidence where you're going to be on that outcome in the next even six months,. i think it'll be hilarious to come back and listen to this in just six months, we revisit this kind of more imparrised world. Trade mocks us for saying what we would expect 6 or 12 months ago is not likely to happen today. We can't predict when people will start taking behaviors into account that prevent them from doing something they
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Speaker 1
So i think it's a little different for somebody who's not a, you know, a deep, deep biotec expert to jump in and look, there is opposed to a younow,
Speaker 3
old,
Speaker 1
old economy, industrial business that's trading at cash right, where you could actually sad, looktha, whoever it was that agreed to sell their asset and liquidate and return capital to shareholders. It's a rare wind for for good governance, if that was what actually happened. So well, it was 't, 'll be morally
Speaker 2
by choice. Rightos up. All right. Buk non byote specialist, r not iojec, people coming in and saying like e, we see an opportunity here. E, rid e. Ahen,
Speaker 1
the other thing i want to ask about elliot is, in this world of of not debty leveraging, don't you think i'm arguing the other side a little but now, for if i was alittle bit pessimistic earlier, if ifyou're correct, which i think you almost certainly are, that this is not going to be a story of a ton of debty leveraging driving the situation, that that's almost a good thing. I think, as you look at basically every balance sheet, other than state, local and federal, things are in pretty good shape. And an even rate profits, let alone corporate balance sheets, are in pretty good shape. And consumer balance sheets are in pretty good shape. So that that should be a positive, right? And
Speaker 2
state and local got a lot better. It's actually pretty damn surprising.
Speaker 1
Lot better, that's true, bizarrely.
Speaker 2
So, i mean, on speaking here from what had formerly ben known as the second worst state in the country in terms of our balance sheet, in connecticut, after illinois,
Speaker 1
where we we cover some good states here. Phil huma, i got their credit rating got up grated
Speaker 2
for. In the end, connecticut has a surplus that we're trying to figure out what to do with. And our governor's going to pass the largest tax cut in the state's history, alongside a major capital investment in our schoolsd. So the federal is the one remaining problem, and they get paid taxes in nominal, not real terms. So, you know, as much as inflation's been a problem, it's a going to take care of the one remaining a problem balance sheet out there. And by the way, you just don't need the federal balance sheet to patch the problem now that the private sector's repaired. It's an interesting spot. I don't knowt there hasn't really been this kind of set up a in the past. Andi, i don't want ize the fact that, especially rising gas prices have a big impact on the people least capable of dealing with that, a strain. But the silver lining is that strain is a fraction of what it was even in oat, because vehicles are far more efficient. And am, you know, in general, the economy's in a lot better shape than it was beck then. So maybe it just doesn't sting the same way, though, it's really painful, and it absolutely flows through a to consumer sentiment and get people to change some of their habits. Ah, but i think to the extent that oil rises persistently. I, i, i, i've been one of those people who believe it's more deflationary and aggregate for the economy than inflationary, because while it flows through the price of some goods, it sucks the ar otof a lot of other parts of the system. Am, so it kind of takes care of itself in some ways. It
Speaker 1
does t itogratic. There's just so many different forces working against each other right now, inflationary and deflationary, and stimulative and depressive, or or tightening and easan easing, almost at the same time, that it's really, really hard to say with much confidence where you're going to be on that, you know, outcome in the next even six months, right? I think it'll be hilarious to come back and listen to this in just six months. Let's just say at the end of the year, we revisit this and be kind of more whip lash, i would expect. Trade
Speaker 2
m totally imparrised, pi, some things i've said in the last six months, and six months ago, 18 months ago. And i think it's just one of those environments where things have happened really fast, and any time something's looked obvious, it's exactly when a, you knowi absolutely reverses and makes everyone look like a fool. And one of the things i'd add to your corps points about recession at the top, whether it's worth predicting or not, im typically, you know, the thing that you fear most, it actually becomes less likely to happen because people start taking behaviors that prevent its occurrence in advance.
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