The Negative Effects of AGI Estimates

The median date for AGI, it used to be what, like 2040 or something, right? And it seems obvious to me now that that was a sort of average between a lot of people who thought that it was going to be coming in the next five years. But really, from a model-based perspective, it kind of made sense that it was either going to be soon or we were fundamentally wrong about some basic things and it would take a long time.