Problems with Intelligence and Military Assistance

Earlier this month, I recorded a conversation with my friend Patricia Agupusi, assistant professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute and an expert on insurgencies, political violence, and state capture, among other topics. She has lived and worked extensively in Nigeria, where her fieldwork included interviewing Nigerians displaced by political, ethnic, and religious violence. When I asked Patricia to come on the show, I was seeking some background on the Trump administration’s statements about anti-Christian violence perpetrated by Boko Haram in the northern part of the country. I suspected that the situation, while undoubtedly dire for Christians, was more complex than the White House’s messaging made it sound.

My suspicions turned out to be correct. In this episode, Patricia offers a nuanced account of terrorism, religious radicalism, interethnic conflict, and government corruption and neglect that has led to the deaths and displacement not only of many Christians in northern Nigeria, but of many Muslims as well. Patricia provides a rich account of the region and its history. It was recorded weeks before the US conducted an aerial strike on Sokoto, a predominately Muslim state that many have described as an unusual choice, if the goal was to inflict damage on major terrorist networks.

In this conversation, Patricia expressed skepticism at the efficacy of US military intervention. The strike seems to have done little to change her mind. In an email to me sent after the attack, she wrote:

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Video Links

0:00 Intro: Last week’s military strikes in Nigeria

00:36 Getting beneath the headlines in northern Nigeria

3:55 What is Boko Haram?

4:28 Childcare intermission: How Glenn and Patricia started working together

7:19 Boko Haram’s attack and recruitment strategies

11:44 Patricia: Boko Haram targets both Christians and Muslims

13:33 Ground News ad

15:25 The complex religious demographics of northern Nigeria

19:16 The history of Nigerian jihad

23:27 The state’s complacent reaction to anti-Christian violence

33:57 Patricia’s fieldwork with internally displaced Nigerians

36:16 Patricia: Fear and government dysfunction, not poverty, motivate people to join Boko Haram

41:14 The surprising popularity of US intervention among Nigerians

43:32 Patricia: If the US wants to help, it should sanction politicians and their families

54:10 The pointlessness of US military intervention

58:01 The best case scenario for Nigeria’s next decade

Recorded December 4, 2025

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