Is the Inverted Yield Curve a Harbinger of a Recession?

The Federal Reserve has hiked rates so much on the short end, short interest rates are close to 5%. Long term interest rates haven't gone up by nearly as much. The bond market is now telling the Fed it's going too far in terms of raising rates that it doesn't need to have rates even where they are right now. So we may get a recession in the next six to 12 months. But I think there's a better case to be made that it would be a mild one and not one that's as extreme as you would assume based just on the extent of the yield curve inversion.

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