How Predictive Do You Think Your Theories Are?

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How predictive do you think your theories are? So say you looked at africa, knowing all of what's in your books and your articles. And you play at a philip tatlock forecasting tournament which countries an africa will do quite well over the next 30 years. Are you better at that than other people are? I don't think i will be that good at it, because details matter. Leadership matters. Collapses matter. You see some elements that can be the basis of some broad tendencies. Can predict a false lines. But making very specific predictions is going to be very hard.

What determines the economic, social, and political trajectories of nations? Why were settlers in colonies like Jamestown and Australia able to escape the extractive systems desired by their British masters, while colonial subjects in Barbados and Jamaica were not? In his latest book, Daron Acemoglu elevates the power of institutions over theories centering on human capital, culture, or geography. Institutions help strike the balance of power in the constant struggle between state and society, creating a ‘narrow corridor’ through which liberty and prosperity is achieved.

Daron joined Tyler for a conversation about drivers of economic growth, the economic causes and effects of democratization, how Germanic tribes introduced “bottom-up politics” to the Roman empire, the institutional reasons that China’s state capacity and control has increased with its wealth, his predictions for the future of liberty in his birth country of Turkey, the biggest challenges currently facing the Middle East, what we can learn from the example of Lagos, why publishing in the “top five” is overrated, tips on motivating graduate students, and more.

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Recorded October 25th, 2019 Other ways to connect

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