Fair Value Models and Peak Overshoot

The Last Trade: Mark Yusko breaks down why the bitcoin cycle isn’t dead, how futures and index flows “tame” BTC, why gold and oil remain the real benchmarks, and what this year’s post-peak reset signals about an adversarial, institutional future.

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🎙️ About This Episode

With recurring guest Mark W. Yusko, we zoom out on Bitcoin’s 2025 run: why he still sees a 3 years 11 months, block-based cycle, how fair value models frame the recent peak around $126K, and why a smaller overshoot can mean a healthier foundation for the next phase. We unpack how CME futures and “paper BTC” reshaped market structure, what it really means to judge Bitcoin in gold and oil terms, and how prediction markets and casino-ified finance fit into a world of engineered liquidity and index-driven equities.

From there, we get into the quiet endowment and institutional bid (via Paradigm, Andreessen, and now ETFs), the structural “rigging” of 401(k) and index flows, and the political/regulatory edge of the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and CBDC ambitions. Mark lays out why Bitcoin and gold remain core stores of purchasing power in a heavily financialized system—and how allocators can navigate an increasingly adversarial environment while keeping the message human, savings-focused, and long-term.

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 – Welcoming Mark Yusko back & Thanksgiving sentiment

02:15 – No blow-off top: did the 2025 cycle peak quietly at $126K?

05:36 – “Taming” Bitcoin: CME futures, paper BTC, and market structure

10:54 – Bitcoin in gold and oil terms: has the real bull market started?

17:46 – Prediction markets, gambling, and separating signal from opinion

25:54 – Post-2020 money printing, MMT, and gold/BTC as liquidity sponges

30:31 – Tech cycles, venture vintages, and where this crypto buildout fits

35:54 – Rigged equities: 401(k)s, index flows, and boomer entitlements

48:42 – Vanguard, JPM, IBIT flows & why “coincidences” cluster on Wall Street

55:22 – Endowments, Paradigm/Andreessen, and quiet institutional BTC adoption

1:08:17 – Genius Act, Clarity Act, CBDCs & the “then they fight you” phase

1:20:15 – Internet vs bitcoin, censorship, and an adversarial next decade

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