The One Standard Deviation, Dark Blue Band

In this episode, Saifedean invites back PlanB to back discuss the resilience of his stock-to-flow bitcoin pricing model in the face of global economic changes. They talk about the range of events that have impacted the bitcoin price since the model’s inception – Covid lockdowns, MicroStrategy, Elon Musk, China mining ban, El Salvador – and why the price has largely stayed within one standard deviation of the model’s baseline throughout. They also discuss institutional interest in bitcoin, which countries might follow El Salvador in adopting bitcoin as legal tender, and how QE and lockdown-created supply chain issues are causing global price inflation. In the Q&A, PlanB answers questions about money printing, whether S2F should be used to trade, and bitcoin’s short-term price outlook.

Resources

• PlanB on Twitter.
• Bitstein’s S2F multiple account on Twitter.
• March 2019 Medium post marking launch of the S2F model.
• April 2020 Medium post marking launch of the S2Fx model.
• PlanB’s article Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model.
• Saifedean’s first book, The Bitcoin Standard
• Saifedean’s second book, The Fiat Standard

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