Ukraine: How will the war evolve in 2023?
The Briefing Room
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Is It Just the Long Term?
The most likely scenario is one in which Ukraine has succeeded in taking back more of its territory, but nonetheless remains short of restoring the battle lines that prevailed on February 24 at dawn in 2022. The crunch I think will come towards the end of this year, barring any black swans you know unknowns that could arise before then. In 2024 we're going to be entering towards presidential elections both in Russia and in the United States. And that is going to put pressure on both sides to try and see some kind of significant change in Ukraine.
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