K-shaped Recovery and Political Consequences

In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions

00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion

01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives

02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders

04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it

07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes

08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term

10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump 2.0

14:27 - The economic agenda redefining tariffs, reshoring and political constituencies

17:17 - Manufacturing limits, automation and long term structural realities

21:11 - Tariffs, tax politics and the competing factions within the Republican Party

21:50 - Deregulation, AI, Silicon Valley realignment and state influence

26:34 - The affordability crisis and political expectations around prices

31:23 - Prospects for Democrats in 2026 and shifting electoral dynamics

59:32 - A global lens on rising nationalism, new hegemons and the future of the EU

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