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The Conflicting Theories of Beliefs
The way the economy affects elections is it really only seems to matter how the economy is doing in the last eight months of a term. And there's no evidence that half of the folks who govern during a period of drought are getting a boost because people think they did a better than average job responding to drought. The question of what you believe actually has a lot to do with, are you feeling afraid right then? That's I think a lesson from New York in the 90s. We're activating a lot of racial identities, a lot of national identities. But this election could have been about race because Obama won the last election and Romney very consciously did not activate racial identity.