Cost Curve, Producers' Behavior and M&A

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Josef Schachter to the show. Josef Schachter is Founder, Schachter Asset Management Inc. The discussion centers on the current and future outlook for the global energy market, with a particular focus on oil and natural gas production and investment opportunities.

Schachter presents a bullish perspective on the energy sector, forecasting a significant upward trajectory for oil prices. He predicts WTI oil prices will range from $52-$66 in Q1 2026, rising to $74-$84 in Q4, potentially reaching $100 per barrel by 2028-2029. This projection is underpinned by several key factors, including normal demand growth of 1.2-1.3 million barrels per day and constrained OPEC production capabilities. A critical aspect of Schachter’s thesis is the global lack of new oil discoveries and declining production rates. He highlights that shell oil production experiences 30-50% decline rates in the first year, necessitating continuous drilling. He notes, that over a billion people worldwide lack stable electricity access, presenting a significant future demand opportunity for energy resources.

The conversation explores investment strategies within the energy sector, with Schachter recommending a diversified approach based on individual risk profiles. He suggests considering natural gas, light to medium gravity oil exposure, and service industry stocks. Notably, he emphasizes the importance of companies with strong balance sheets, insider ownership, and prudent management. Schachter is particularly optimistic about Canadian energy companies, many of which are currently trading at two to three times cash flow, with potential to expand to seven or eight times during a potential energy super cycle. He points out attractive dividend yields from various energy companies, ranging from 5% to 11%. The conversation also touches on geopolitical factors, including potential developments in Venezuela and the global shift in energy production and consumption.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:23 – Oil Price Outlook
00:04:39 – Inventory Analysis
00:08:29 – Venezuela Oil Shift
00:10:21 – Rule of Law
00:14:53 – Canadian Stock Impacts
00:17:11 – Investment Opportunities
00:19:00 – Dividend Yields
00:21:30 – Energy Super Cycle
00:22:49 – M&A Activity
00:35:32 – Discovery Shortages
00:40:38 – Global Demand Growth
00:48:16 – Energy Report Details

Guest Links:
Website: https://schachterenergyreport.ca

Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why.

Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call.

Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014.

Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.