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Ep 18: Ch 9, Part 3: “Optimism”

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The Self Sampling Hypothesis - Now We're Modifying the Thought Experiment

If everyone accepts the self sampling assumption, then 90% of all persons will win their bets. But if people think that one is no more likely to be in a blue cubicle than another, and they bet by slipping a coin, on average 50 % of the people will win. The rational thing to do seems to be to accept theSelf Sampling Assumption. Now we're modifying the thought experiment. We still have a hundred cubicles, but this time they're not painted blue or red. Instead, they're numbered from one through to a hundred. Then a fair coin is tossed theca by god. If it falls heads, one person is created in each cubicle. If

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