The ECB Hikes As The Fed Pauses - Is This 2008 Again?
The Macro Trading Floor
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The Predictions for a Spike in Spreads in Europe
We just don't have that smoking gun, that trigger that really could spiral spreads out of control. We've seen such triggers being political oftentimes in Europe. I'm not sure how markets will react if the Spanish election ends up in a result where the Vox party will be part of the coalition. At least it resembles some scenarios that we've seen in Italy. So that could be one trigger event. But what I'm saying here is that the conditions for a spike in spreads in Europe are starting to be there when we get a trigger. The Goldilocks scenario is now quite well priced. It doesn't take much to move the needle now once you really cement the Goldilocks narrative
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