Which States Should Go Early

The Greenland situation continues to look more theatrical than existential. To me, leaked private messages from Emmanuel Macron, public frustration from Donald Trump, and hurried diplomatic calls ahead of Davos all point to the same conclusion: this is pressure politics playing out in real time. Trump’s irritation appears rooted less in Greenland itself and more in confusion over European military commitments and mixed signals from allies. That kind of misunderstanding is combustible, but it is also solvable, especially when everyone involved is about to be in the same conference rooms in Switzerland.

Europe’s response, though, has been pretty revealing. Ursula von der Leyen’s declaration that the “old order is dead” was less a threat than a signal of insecurity. Europe wants leverage, and hinting at closer ties with China is one way to gesture at it. My priors remain that this all de-escalates quietly. The United States and Europe trade too much, rely on each other too deeply, and share too many strategic interests for this to spiral beyond bruised egos and tough talk. The laws of economics tend to win these fights.

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Immigration Enforcement and the Internal Split

Back at home, the most interesting fight is not between parties, but within the Trump administration itself. Tom Homan publicly arguing for better messaging around ICE operations is a tell. He understands that enforcement without a moral argument collapses under public scrutiny. His claim that roughly 70 percent of those arrested are criminals is clearly meant to counter the perception that ICE is acting indiscriminately, especially after the fatal shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis.

What stands out is who is not making that case. Kristi Noem, who has leaned heavily into the aesthetics of enforcement, has ceded the substance to Homan, and that imbalance matters. When enforcement becomes spectacle, it invites backlash. When it is framed as governance, it can sustain itself politically. The friction between Homan and Noem is, to me, the most important palace intrigue to watch in Trump’s second term.

Britain, Chagos, and Playing to the Future

Speaking of our relationship with Europe, Trump’s sharp criticism of the United Kingdom over the Chagos Islands is best understood through a political lens, not a strategic one. The deal to transfer sovereignty to Mauritius while leasing Diego Garcia back for 99 years is not new, nor was it opposed by Washington initially. Trump’s reversal feels less about the base itself and more about aligning with figures like Nigel Farage, who benefit from confrontation with current European leadership.

This is Trump playing a long game with the people he thinks will be in power next, not the ones currently holding office. Whether that gamble pays off is unclear, but it explains why a relatively obscure British territorial issue suddenly became Truth Social fodder. It is coalition maintenance, not military planning.

Netflix, Warner Bros., and the End of Cable Gravity

Finally, Netflix’s revised all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery does a great job highlighting just how badly legacy media wants scale — and how selectively Netflix wants assets. Netflix does not care about cable networks. It wants intellectual property: Batman, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones. Paramount, by contrast, wants the whole thing in order to fight back against Netflix, and is willing to fight in court to get it.

Hovering over all of this is CNN, which Netflix has no interest in owning and Paramount views as distressed but strategically important. Trump’s recent reposts criticizing Netflix’s cultural dominance suggest he may no longer stay neutral, which adds another unpredictable variable. This fight is not just about entertainment. It is about who controls narrative power in a post-cable world.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:05:47 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Republicans, Greenland, and Trump

00:32:59 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Democratic Midterm Primaries

00:49:20 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Josh Shapiro and 2028

00:59:51 - Steelers Talk

01:13:25 - Update

01:13:48 - Immigration

01:16:30 - Chagos Islands

01:21:16 - Netflix, Paramount, and Warner Bros.

01:25:06 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke on Congressional Vibes

01:58:28 - Wrap-up

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