Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 121 to share his macro outlook, views on cryptocurrency and AI, and his Exponential Age thesis.
In this episode, Pal makes a case that we’re currently in the bottom of the business cycle and could be headed for what he’s coined as “macro summer” next year. According to Pal, a macro summer is the “holy grail for macro investing,” characterized by falling rates, falling inflation and growth picking up. Pal noted that tech stocks and crypto priced in a recession last year, and they’re forward-looking, indicating a more positive outlook for the economy, while the Russell 2000 and oil are more reflective of the present day and a slow economy.
Pal, a Goldman Sachs alum, previously co-managed GLG's global macro fund, one of the world's largest. Since retiring back in 2004 at age 36, he now authors a research letter, The Global Macro Investor (GMI), which is read by some of the most influential hedge funds and asset managers. He's also the founder of Real Vision, an online subscription media company specializing in long-form investor interviews.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi
GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/
https://www.realvision.com/
0:00 Welcome Raoul Pal
1:23 Macro view today
4:37 We’re at the bottom of the business cycle now
6:02 In “macro spring” headed for “macro summer”
7:50 Why rates will go lower faster than people think
8:27 Paying interest on the debt
10:15 Did we experience a recession already?
12:29 Inflation
14:15 False narratives in macro
16:12 Central Bank’s currency debasement
19:08 Destruction of the American Dream
21:51 The debt problem
26:30 The Exponential Age and the Everything Code
30:27 The darker view
32:40 Higher for longer
34:45 Portfolio construction in this environment
39:40 Robotics and UBI
43:13 Timeline on crypto and broader adoption
48:12 Psychology of the ups and downs
53:07 Acceleration of AI
54:04 Fourth Turning
55:30 Parting thoughts
The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinksi Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/
