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#41 - Parenting, Epistemology, and EA (w/ Lulie Tanett)
Increments
The Doomcoin Hypothesis: A Sliding Scale
A Bayesian might say okay the particular hypothesis that we're looking at of course like slides up and down. Auxiliary things like things that might go into it might go to zero and so you might like a piece of evidence might collapse And so that's fine. I'm trying to rescue it I'm not sure here But I think there's something in probability that it's really hard to condition something to get the probability to actually go to zero It just gets smaller and smaller but to collapse something to like a delta Well, if if if you like you predict something it doesn't happen Then it's just because you've got unlucky with your your draw right? So yeah, it's just another
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