3min chapter

The Joe Walker Podcast cover image

The Republic Is In Peril — Jack A. Goldstone

The Joe Walker Podcast

CHAPTER

The Problem With Probabilistic Models

Sudden violent events that changed the character of a government are pretty rare. On average we were looking at about three to five such events in any one year, about 150 countries in the world. The really complicated models with numerical algorithms and machine learning to juggle non-linearities among dozens of variables didn't get us very far. They provided no better than a coin flip type of 50% here or 50% there.

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