Rational soothsaying
Think with Pinker
Are You a Bank Teller?
We use imaginability as a crude estimate of probability. And the example i gave is that people think it's likelier that a major war will break out with china over tian than that a majorwar will break out, even though there could be lots of ways other than china clashing with us over tian an a major war could break out. So it's got to be likeliest that a major War will break out across the board. Now several generations of psychology students have been introduced tot this fallacy through a famous young woman named linda.
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